Cory MitchellCMT, Investment Expert Writer
Cory has been a professional trader for two decades. In addition to trading and investing he's widely published and coaches individual clients on the finer points of gaining an edge in the market.
Paul KatzeffDeputy Editor, Investing
Paul Katzeff is an award-winning journalist who has written four books about how to grow your 401(k) retirement nest egg and one about internet investing. Before becoming an investing deputy editor with Forbes Advisor, he was a senior reporter/writer at Investor's Business Daily, a correspondent for Money magazine, managing editor of the Boston Business Journal and staff writer for the Boston Herald American Sunday magazine. His work has been featured in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.
Reviewed
Paul Katzeff
Paul KatzeffDeputy Editor, Investing
Paul Katzeff is an award-winning journalist who has written four books about how to grow your 401(k) retirement nest egg and one about internet investing. Before becoming an investing deputy editor with Forbes Advisor, he was a senior reporter/writer at Investor's Business Daily, a correspondent for Money magazine, managing editor of the Boston Business Journal and staff writer for the Boston Herald American Sunday magazine. His work has been featured in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.
Deputy Editor, Investing
Reviewed
Updated: Jun 14, 2024, 8:44am
Editorial Note: We earn a commission from partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors' opinions or evaluations.
Recession risk in the United States has receded. But geopolitical risk, election risk and restrictive monetary policy all threaten the current market rally. And what about the next inevitable recession?
Investors can weather the market turmoil by investing in certain sectors. Recession stocks are defensive stocks that can sustain growth or limit losses during an economic downturn because their products or services are always in demand. The best recession stocks include consumer staples, utilities and healthcare stocks. Consumers can’t do without these companies, no matter how bad the economy gets.
Forbes Advisor has identified 10 of the best recession stocks for your investment portfolio. They all come from defensive sectors, have steady growth and are more stable than 98% of stocks during the market’s ups and downs over the past 10 years, which included two bear markets.
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Show Summary
- The Best Recession Stocks of June 2024
- Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST)
- Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
- Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX)
- CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)
- Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)
- Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ)
- WEC Energy Group, Inc. (WEC)
- American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP)
- Methodology
The Best Recession Stocks of June 2024
Stock (ticker) | 5-Year Average Yearly EPS Growth Estimate |
---|---|
Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) | 13.5% |
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) | 9.9% |
9.3% | |
Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) | 8.6% |
7.9% | |
CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) | 7.6% |
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) | 7.4% |
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) | 7.4% |
WEC Energy Group, Inc. (WEC) | 7.2% |
American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) | 6.4% |
Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST)
5-Year Avg. Ann. EPS Growth Estimate
13.5%
Largest Share Price Drawdown in the Past 10 Years
-30.4%
Dividend Yield
0%
13.5%
-30.4%
0%
Editor's Take
Monster Beverage makes energy drinks, which are widely consumed. MNST’s share price has steadily trended upward over the past two decades.
Company earnings per share, or EPS, have increased an average of 11.2% annually over the past five years. Analysts predict slightly higher yearly EPS growth over the next five years.
While the stock is up more than 350% since 2014, the largest price decline in the last decade is 30.4%. That may seem like a lot, but it represents much lower volatility than the majority of stocks. Even the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) saw a larger decline of 34% during that period.
MNST doesn’t pay a dividend, but it has been buying back shares with a current buyback yield of 1.21%. Buybacks can help bolster shareholder value over time because profits are split between fewer shares outstanding and therefore shareholders.
Morningstar gives MNST an “A” financial health grade. Over the last decade, MNST’s average annual return is 16%.
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
5-Year Avg. Ann. EPS Growth Estimate
9.9%
Largest Share Price Drawdown in the Past 10 Years
31.5%
Dividend Yield
0.6%
9.9%
31.5%
0.6%
Editor's Take
Costco provides a membership-based retail shopping experience via its online store and warehouses.
Company earnings per share have increased an average of 14.6% annually over the past five years. Analysts predict 9.9% yearly EPS growth over the next five years. Steadily rising earnings are a key factor in lifting the stock price over time.
Morningstar gives the company a financial health grade of “A.” It was the best-performing stock on our list over the last decade, with an average annual return of 24.5%.
Costco stock has a dividend yield of 0.6%. The company has increased its dividend by an average of 12.6% annually over the past 10 years. It has also been buying back shares, with a buyback yield of 0.2%.
Church & Dwight Company, Inc. (CHD)
5-Year Avg. Ann. EPS Growth Estimate
9.3%
Largest Share Price Drawdown in the Past 10 Years
32.1%
Dividend Yield
1.1%
9.3%
32.1%
1.1%
Editor's Take
Church & Dwight is the parent company for many household and personal care brands, including Arm & Hammer, Trojan and Oxi Clean.
EPS has increased an average of 6.2% per year over the past five years. Analysts predict that will increase to 9.3% average annual EPS growth over the next five years.
It has an “A” financial health rating from Morningstar and pays a dividend of 1.1%. The dividend amount has increased an average of 6.2% per year over the last decade.
The average annual stock return over the past decade is 13.6%.
Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX)
5-Year Avg. Ann. EPS Growth Estimate
8.6%
Largest Share Price Drawdown in the Past 10 Years
-29.9%
Dividend Yield
1.6%
8.6%
-29.9%
1.6%
Editor's Take
Becton, Dickinson and Company is a manufacturer and distributor of a wide array of medical and surgical products, such as syringes, needles and catheters.
The company’s EPS has risen an annual average of roughly 6.1% over the past five years. Analysts expect 8.6% average annual earnings growth over the next five years.
Morningstar gives the company an “A” financial health rating. BDX has also been buying back some shares, generating a 0.7% buyback yield
Becton offers a decent dividend yield. The company has been growing the dividend payout by an average of 5.7% a year over the past 10 years. In fact, the company has been raising its dividend payout for more than 25 years, making it a member of the Dividend Aristocrats. Its 10-year average annual return is 8.9%.
The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)
5-Year Avg. Ann. EPS Growth Estimate
7.9%
Largest Share Price Drawdown in the Past 10 Years
-25.5%
Dividend Yield
2.4%
7.9%
-25.5%
2.4%
Editor's Take
Procter & Gamble makes a wide array of grooming and household products under brands such as Head & Shoulders, Crest, Pampers and Bounty.
The stock is the most stable on our list, with the smallest drawdown of 25.5% in the past decade. It has an “A” financial health rating from Morningstar and a 2.4% dividend yield. The company increased the dividend amount by an average of 4.6% per year over the past decade. PG also buys back shares, with a buyback yield of 0.9%
EPS has increased an average of 7.8% per year over the past five years. Analysts expect similar EPS growth going forward. The average annual return over the past decade is 10.8%.
CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)
5-Year Avg. Ann. EPS Growth Estimate
7.6%
Largest Share Price Drawdown in the Past 10 Years
-29.6%
Dividend Yield
3.4%
7.6%
-29.6%
3.4%
Editor's Take
CMS Energy is a utility company that provides electricity and natural gas to consumers in Michigan.
The company is an all-around solid performer, with annual earnings growth of 8.2% over the past five years and 7.6% annual growth expected over the next five years.
CMS’s largest price decline over the last decade was 30%, and the company has an average annual return of 10.7% per year over that period. Good returns for lower drawdowns are the hallmark of a good recession stock.
CMS pays one of the higher dividend yields on this list. The dividend payout has grown at an average annual rate of about 6.7% over the past five years. It has a “B” financial health rating—which indicates a high-quality company—from Morningstar.
Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)
5-Year Avg. Ann. EPS Growth Estimate
7.4%
Largest Share Price Drawdown in the Past 10 Years
-33.2%
Dividend Yield
2.8%
7.4%
-33.2%
2.8%
Editor's Take
Atmos distributes natural gas to approximately three million customers in eight states.
The company has increased earnings per share by an average of 9.7% per year over the past five years. Morningstar gives it an “A” financial health rating.
The dividend yield is 2.8% and the dividend amount has increased an average of 8.1% per year over the past decade. ATO has performed well, with an average annual return of 11.3% per year over the past decade.
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ)
5-Year Avg. Ann. EPS Growth Estimate
7.4%
Largest Share Price Drawdown in the Past 10 Years
-29.7%
Dividend Yield
2.5%
7.4%
-29.7%
2.5%
Editor's Take
Mondelez owns a diverse assortment of snack and consumables brands, including Cadbury, Clif bars, Chips Ahoy!, Halls and Oreo.
The company has steady earnings growth, averaging 7.3% per year over the last five years. Analysts forecast about the same growth going forward.
Mondelez has a 2.5% dividend yield. The company has increased its dividend by an average of 11.7% per year over the past decade. MDLZ also buys back shares, with a buyback yield of 1.9%.
Morningstar gives it an “A” financial health rating. The stock has an average annual return of 8.2% over the past 10 years.
WEC Energy Group, Inc. (WEC)
5-Year Avg. Ann. EPS Growth Estimate
7.2%
Largest Share Price Drawdown in the Past 10 Years
-32.3%
Dividend Yield
4.2%
7.2%
-32.3%
4.2%
Editor's Take
WEC Energy provides electricity and natural gas to 4.7 million customers in Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin.
WEC has the highest dividend yield on our list at 4.2%, and it has increased its dividend by an average of 7.9% per year over the past decade. EPS has increased an average of 5.9% per year over the past five years. Analysts expect EPS to rise by an annual average of 7.2% over the next five years.
Morningstar gives the company a “B” financial health rating. The average annual return of the stock over the last decade is 9.3%.
American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP)
5-Year Avg. Ann. EPS Growth Estimate
6.4%
Largest Share Price Drawdown in the Past 10 Years
-32.9%
Dividend Yield
4%
6.4%
-32.9%
4%
Editor's Take
American Electric Power Company provides electricity to 5.6 million customers in 11 states.
The company’s EPS increased an average of 5.3% per year over the past five years. Analysts expect higher growth in the future.
It has the second-highest dividend on our list at 4%, and the dividend has increased an average of 5.8% per year over the past decade.
AEP has a “B” financial health grade from Morningstar and has produced an average annual return of 9% over the past 10 years.
All analysis and data are sourced from Trades That Swing, current as of June 11, 2024.
Methodology
Our list of the best recession stocks is built using strict criteria. Each of the stocks outlined above is traded on major U.S. exchanges, has a per-share price of at least $5 and sees daily average trading volume of over 150,000 shares per day. In addition, each meets the following requirements:
- Low volatility. The stocks have not seen a sustained decline of more than 35% in the past 10 years, based on daily closing prices and adjusted for dividends. Only 69 stocks that traded on major U.S. exchanges met this volatility criteria—most U.S. stocks have seen much bigger declines.
- Steady profits. Positive earnings for at least six years.
- Earnings growth. At least 5% annual average EPS growth over the past five years.
- Expected future growth. At least 6% annual EPS growth expectations over the next five years.
While not a requirement in the selection of the best recession stocks, dividend yield and dividend growth were also considered. Dividends provide cash flow even when a stock is declining and also offer a hedge against inflation.
To learn more about our rating and review methodology and editorial process, check out our guide on how Forbes Advisor rates investing products.
Note: An experienced financial analyst selected the stocks above, but they may not be right for your portfolio. Before you purchase any of these stocks, do plenty of research to ensure they align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
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